The price of bitcoin has been on the rise since the halving, which halved the issuance of new cryptocurrency tokens, during the night from Friday to Saturday. This event, which occurs approximately every four years, however, has not caused euphoria on the crypto market. For now…
Neither collapse, nor crazy flight. The “halving” of bitcoin (see our “Understand everything” on this subject here), which occurred a little over two days ago, on the night of Friday April 19 to Saturday April 20, will hardly have caused the price of the most famous of cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is up more than 2% over the last 24 hours, to just over $66,000. It was already climbing 2.90% at the end of Saturday morning.
The asset is therefore progressing, but it has accustomed us to much more significant jumps.
The cryptocurrency “is moving today in a range – a corridor – between 60,000 and 74,000 dollars”, specifies on BFM Business Matthias Baccino, director of European markets for the broker Trade Republic
Skyrocketing increases during previous halvings
The halving went off without a hitch, once again showing the smooth functioning and resilience of the Bitcoin blockchain. The technical event halved the bitcoin reward granted to miners, who put the computing power of their machines at the service of the blockchain on which the cryptocurrency is based to validate transactions in the form of new blocks.
It is usually followed by a sharp rise in the price of bitcoin in the following months. “Statistically, it is not always very relevant to look at (past performance) on an asset as young as bitcoin, nevertheless it can give an indication,” believes Matthias Baccino.
“Last time, bitcoin did +370% in the year following the halving. And the time before that, it was +7,000%,” he added.
But the cryptocurrency started from much lower the previous times. Above all, the halving this time was greatly anticipated by investors, with bitcoin flirting with $74,000 in mid-March, when it reached a new record.
Inflation and the Fed spark fears
A lot of good news, such as the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs in the United States, has already contributed to the price of bitcoin taking off in recent months. The cryptocurrency could now suffer from fears linked to the maintenance of high key interest rates by the American central bank (the Fed).
“If elements come to support the fact that inflation is taking time to slow down in the United States and that the Fed will have to leave its rates unchanged for even longer, this could bring us once again to 60,000 dollars per bitcoin, or even in -below”, warns Alexandre Baradez, chief analyst at the broker IG, still on BFM Business.
“But I don’t think we should see a return below $60,000 as a lasting threat to the asset,” he adds.
For now, the analyst therefore sees bitcoin continuing “at best in the zone that we have known for two months (between 60,000 and 74,000 dollars, Editor’s note), at worst making a small temporary incursion between 50,000 and 60,000 dollars”. This last price range “would be a good impulse zone to then start again at new highs”, he considers.
Bitcoin miners penalized
For miners, halving has halved part of their income. Their reward for each new block mined increased from 6.25 to 3.125 bitcoins. As a result, many companies in the sector risk suffering.
“This loss of income is offset by an increase in transaction fees, because that’s also how we earn our living,” tempers Sabrina Shaitia, CEO of Cryptominers France, on BFM Business.
It also advances productivity gains thanks to investments in more efficient machines. “This halving will allow a consolidation of the market. The big players in mining, who have been able to buy new, much more efficient machines, will be able to survive. The smaller ones will disappear,” she assures, categorically.
Furthermore, miners are generally benefiting from the sharp rise in the price of bitcoin in recent months. A progression which could continue in the coming months, thanks to this fourth halving since the creation of the cryptocurrency in 2009.
In total, 33 halvings must take place, approximately every four years, until the creation of the last bitcoin planned for 2140. But more than 19 million tokens of the cryptocurrency have already been put into circulation out of the 21 million programmed by the mysterious founder of bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto.
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